A recent study, published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications, reveals that a substantial shift in our dietary habits could have profound positive effects on the environment. The research suggests that if we were to replace half of our current consumption of pork, chicken, beef, and milk products with plant-based alternatives, we could potentially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and related land use by nearly a third. Additionally, this dietary shift could virtually put a halt to the loss of forests and mitigate the environmental damages associated with the production of animal-based foods.
The demand for key animal products, driven by population growth and rising incomes, carries significant environmental consequences. Cattle farming, for example, leads to deforestation as land is cleared to accommodate these animals and the crops needed to feed them. Furthermore, cows emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas with a much stronger warming effect than carbon dioxide.
The study employed modeling techniques to assess the impact of a global shift towards plant-based alternatives that offer the same nutritional value as pork, beef, chicken, and milk. The results indicate that if consumption of these animal products were reduced by half, greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture and land use could drop by 31% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. In this scenario, the expansion of agricultural land would be curbed, leading to a 12% reduction in land allocated for farming. Natural land areas, including forests, would remain largely unchanged, sparing them from further degradation.
Moreover, such a massive transition to plant-based foods would enhance global food security, potentially reducing the number of undernourished people by 31 million by 2050. This shift would also promote biodiversity, with restored land areas contributing significantly to the land restoration targets set in a recent global treaty. The decline in ecosystems, as projected by current trends, could be more than halved by 2050.
Co-author of the study, Eva Wollenberg, emphasized that plant-based meats offer a critical opportunity to achieve not only food security and climate goals but also health and biodiversity objectives worldwide. The potential benefits of this shift would be particularly significant in Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and Southeast Asia, where the greatest reductions in biodiversity loss would occur. Carbon sequestration levels would also see substantial improvements, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America, particularly Brazil.
It is important to note that any such changes should consider the cultural significance of livestock in some societies and the livelihoods of small-scale farmers. However, the researchers stressed that climate change poses a significant threat to these groups as well. The adoption and success of plant-based products in the market will depend largely on pricing, while the speed and fairness of this transition will rely on public policies.